From green to ripe: Dynamics of peacemaking in Colombia (1998–2016)

Armed conflict in Colombia with the Revolutionary Forces of (FARC-EP) was only settled after 50 years and several attempts at negotiations. This sequence events fits pattern “conflict ripeness” first proposed by William Zartman. But using a successful settlement as way to determine ripeness can be tautological. To address this issue, we develop formal model identify level which is settled. In an overripe both parties end up spending resources military build-up that out proportion what they obtain final settlement. We show such overripeness exacerbated access factional heterogeneity within two sides. illustrate these dynamics looking detail negotiation between Colombia’s government FARC-EP. end, combine statistical data, some previously undisclosed, interviews key participants.